Top 10 Weekly Insights of 2023

Dec 18, 2023

In keeping with our annual tradition, below are our favourite Weekly Insights publications of the past year. In chronological order:


Hockey & Dividends (HERE) 16 Jan 2023


While dividend strategies struggled in 2023 early in the year, this report highlighted a number of different factors, like debt composition, yield sensitivity, economic sensitivity, and pricing power, that would become more important in driving performance across the dividend space.


Know thyself (HERE) 27 Feb 2023


The path to becoming a better investor is experience and learning to make better decisions. This post highlighted the fact that the last few years have been one of the best periods in recent history to truly understand your own emotional tendencies. It has been a great time to reflect and better understand yourself.


It is 2023, Not 2008 (HERE) 16 Mar 2023


In the midst of the U.S. regional banking mini-crisis, we shared our thoughts. This was nothing like 2008, and we discussed why still cautious markets were likely overreacting.


Is the Third Time a Charm? (HERE) 29 May 2023


A look at gold, which was bumping up against the $2,000/oz level for the 3rd time.


Does the Market Need to Drink to Have a Good Time? (HERE) 26 Jun 2023


We cannot underestimate the impact of quantitative stimulus, and it isn’t just the overnight rate or what the central bankers are talking about. General account, Repo markets, open market buying/selling – these continue to have very large impacts on asset prices.


Earnings: Economists vs Analysts (HERE) 8 Aug 2023


This was a fun look at earnings estimates in conjunction with what economists said. We looked at how analysts saw growing earnings compared to how economists viewed the overall economy.


Bulls, Bears, and Pumpkin Spice (HERE) 14 Aug 2023


In the short term, watching sentiment has proven very useful. This look at sentiment painted a rather bearish picture, noting that markets went down in August, September, and October.


Sometimes, Even a Free Lunch Can Taste Bad (HERE) 16 Oct 2023


Diversification is said to be the only free lunch when investing… well, with correlations of late, that lunch has not tasted so good. This was a look at correlations between asset classes and thoughts on portfolio construction.


The Thematic Riddle (HERE) 23 Oct 2023


Investors often shoot themselves in the foot when using thematic ETFs by buying too late and holding on too long. This post looked at this exciting part of the market… if only there were a better way to invest in thematic ETFs (spoiler: there is).


2024 Outlook – The Great Reset Final Act (HERE) 4 Dec 2023


Of course, we have to include our outlook for 2024 because while looking back can be insightful, what happens next is much more important.



Enjoy the holidays; the next edition will be the first week of January in the form of a year-in-review edition.



— Craig Basinger is the Chief Market Strategist at Purpose Investments



Disclaimers


Source: Charts are sourced to Bloomberg L.P. and Purpose Investments Inc.


The contents of this publication were researched, written and produced by Purpose Investments Inc. and are used by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. for information purposes only.


This report is authored by Craig Basinger, Chief Market Strategist, Purpose Investments Inc. 


Insurance products and services are offered by life insurance licensed advisors through Chevron Wealth Preservation Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. This material is provided for general information and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of life insurance products or securities mentioned herein. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness. Before acting on any of the above, please seek individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Please note that only Echelon Wealth Partners is a member of CIPF and regulated by IIROC; Chevron Wealth Preservation is not.

 

Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections based on beliefs and assumptions made by author. These statements involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements.

 

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These estimates and expectations involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

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13 May, 2024
The normal narrative for encouraging investors to look at emerging markets typically goes like this: The valuations are cheap, the demographics/rising incomes are supportive of growth, and they offer diversification. Perhaps this is more the marketing narrative. Kind of how, like for infrastructure strategies, they always talk about how many bridges need repairing. We are not refuting any of the above reasons, as they have been rather perennial for many, many years. And yet, for those who know us, we have been rather negative or at least cool on emerging markets for a long time. How long? Well, this negative view persisted for well over a decade. This is us giving ourselves a pat on the back since Emerging Markets (EM) have done roughly nothing for the past 12 years as Developed Markets (DM) have charged higher (chart).
06 May, 2024
Take your pick. There is no shortage of both good and bad news floating about the financial markets. To be fair, this is always the case. The hard part is understanding which side is stronger today and which side will be stronger tomorrow. With markets up low to mid-single digits following a very strong Q4 finish to 2023, most would agree the optimists are carrying the day at the moment. It is not just rose-coloured glasses; there is good news out there. Economic growth signs or momentum appear to be improving year-to-date. Dial back a few quarters, and the U.S. economy remained resilient while other economies softened or were rather lacklustre, including Canada, Europe, Japan, and China, to highlight some of the biggies. Today, while Canada is struggling, momentum in the U.S. has moved even higher, and there are signs of improvement in most jurisdictions.
29 Apr, 2024
There are three things you should rarely ever bet against: the Leaf’s opposing team in the playoffs, the American consumer’s ability to spend, and corporate profits. As we are now about halfway through U.S. earnings season, once again, positive surprises remain the norm; 81% have beaten. It's a bit better than the 20-year average of 75%. The fact is that companies are good at managing analysts’ expectations. At least enough to beat them when the numbers hit the tape. The size of the positive surprises have been encouraging as well, at just under 10%. The highest surprise magnitude in some time. One of our reservations on the sustainability of this market rally over the past couple of quarters has been the flat earnings revisions. In other words, global markets are up over 20% but earnings estimates have remained flat or tilted down slightly. More often than not, markets trend in the same direction as earnings revisions. Earnings get revised up when companies raise guidance and/or analysts become more encouraged about growth prospects. That is a good thing for markets. Obviously, downward revisions are bad. Yet estimates have remained very flat as markets marched higher, a challenging combination.
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